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Posts about starcraft

Learning my per-matchup MMR in Starcraft II through PyMC3

In this post we'll continue our SC2 replay research, started last time. You may want to go back to that and pick up on the terminology!

To recap: we used replay data from my SC2 games over 2019 to estimate a "true MMR" value and infer the size of per-game fluctuations. This time, we'll redo that analysis, except to get something more useful: we'll look at the three matchups I played and infer separate MMR values for each of those. Let's dig into it!

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Bayesian modeling of StarCraft II ladder performance

I've been in a bit of a pickle recently. I really need to figure out Bayesian inference as practice for my masters' thesis. I've been wondering, what kind of cool project - hopefully with my own data - could I make?, I thought as I fired up StarCraft II in the evening, as I usually do to unwind nowadays. What kind of fun use of PyMC3, the neat Python library for probabilistic programming, could I showcase?, I wondered as I watched my ladder ratings fall from the distraction. What kind of useful knowledge could I try to acquire using it?, I thought, watching my game performance fluctuate over the course of months.

And then it hit me.

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